Thursday, December 30, 2010

Beautiful Gold Coins





Two-speed recovery extended into 2011

Two-speed recovery Extend into 2011, Says IMF
By Jeremy Clift
IMF Survey online


December 30, 2010

Two-speed recovery to dominate 2011, with growth remaining slow in advanced economies
In emerging economies, challenge for some is to manage possible overheating and capital flows
Number of countries in Europe face tough and long macroeconomic adjustment
The two-speed global economic recovery is likely to dominate 2011, with weak growth in advanced economies barely enough to bring down unemployment and emerging markets facing the challenges of success, including how to avoid overheating and handle strong capital inflows, the IMF’s Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, said.

In an assessment of the global economy at the end of 2010, and the prospects for 2011, Blanchard said that countries should continue to focus on rebalancing their economies in the coming year, including structural measures and exchange rate adjustments.

“Without this economic rebalancing, there will be no healthy recovery,” he told IMF Survey, the online magazine of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In an interview, Blanchard talked about the central role of the Group of Twenty (G-20) advanced and emerging market economies in helping during the global crisis and the need for continued cooperation to build on the recovery, as well as the prospects for both Europe and low-income countries. Following is the text of the interview:

IMF Survey online: What is your assessment of how the global economy turned out in 2010? What went better than you anticipated, and what does not look so good?

Blanchard: The short answer is that there were no major surprises. We had forecast positive but low growth in advanced economies, fast growth in emerging economies, and, lo and behold, this is how the year has turned out.

Indeed, I just went back and compared outcomes to our forecasts as of last January. For advanced countries, we were right on the dot for the United States; things turned out a bit better than expected for core Europe; Japan had higher growth than we had anticipated, but it looks like a one-time phenomenon. As for emerging countries, we were right on the mark for China; India did better than we had forecast.

To say that there were no major surprises, however, is not the same as saying that things are fine. They are not. The two-speed recovery, low in advanced countries, fast in emerging market countries, is striking and its features are increasingly stark. They will probably dominate 2011, and beyond.

IMF Survey online: What do you mean? Tell us more about this two-speed recovery.

Blanchard: Emerging market countries were affected by the crisis through both trade and financial channels. The turnaround in trade has been nearly as sharp as the earlier collapse. But while trade has not yet fully recovered, most emerging market countries have been able to increase domestic demand so as to return to high growth. In turn, their good performance has led capital flows to come back, in some cases, with much force. For many of these countries, the challenges are now how to avoid overheating and how to handle capital flows.

"The turnaround in trade has been nearly as sharp as the earlier collapse."
In many advanced economies, the crisis damage was much deeper. The financial system was badly broken. Securitization has to be reinvented. In many of these countries, markets are still uncertain about the true health of banks and financial intermediation is not working well. Combine this with the need to correct past excesses, from low saving to excess housing investment and the result is a slow recovery, barely strong enough to decrease unemployment. This is painful but not that surprising. The evidence, which we had documented in a chapter of the World Economic Outlook last year, is that recoveries from financial crises are long and slow.

IMF Survey online: For the past couple of years, the need for economic rebalancing has been the mantra of the IMF. As we begin 2011, where do we stand?

Blanchard: It should remain the mantra. Rebalancing, internal and external, continues to be crucial. Without this economic rebalancing, there will be no healthy recovery. The argument is very simple: Before the crisis, growth in many advanced countries came from excessive domestic demand, be it consumption, or housing investment. This could not go on. Those countries must rely on other sources of demand. Until now, they have used fiscal policy to prop up domestic demand. This was needed, but it is not sustainable. The deficit countries must rely more on external demand, on exports. And, by symmetry, surplus countries, many of them emerging markets, must do the reverse, shift from external demand to domestic demand and reduce their dependence on exports.

This is not to say that without rebalancing, the recovery cannot continue. Continued fiscal expansion, or a return by U.S. consumers to their old, low-saving ways can sustain demand and growth for some time. But they will recreate many of the problems that were at the root of the crisis. And guess what will come next …

IMF Survey online: What about exchange rate adjustments? Some argue that there is too much pressure on China to allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate.

Blanchard: Rebalancing is a complex process. No single measure, no one country holds the solution on its own. Structural measures are required: for example, in Asia, measures to improve financial intermediation or provide more social insurance, in the United States, reforms of the financial intermediation system. But exchange rate adjustment is an integral part of the process.

IMF Survey online: Aren’t capital inflows to emerging market countries a growing worry?

Blanchard: If well used, these capital flows can help rather than hurt. By leading to an appreciation, they help shift countries away from external demand toward domestic demand. And, by making it easier and cheaper to borrow, they can boost domestic demand.

Blanchard: “Rebalancing, internal and external, continues to be crucial. Without this economic rebalancing, there will be no healthy recovery” (IMF photo)
This being said, some emerging market countries rightly worry that capital flows will come and go. They worry about their ability to intermediate the high flows and in some cases they worry about the risks of over-appreciation as well as overheating. So far, we have not seen the tsunami of flows that is sometimes described in the press. But, agreeing on broad “rules of the road” that take into account both country circumstances as well as global links will be one of the major challenges in the year to come.

IMF Survey online: What about low-income countries? What are their prospects?

Blanchard: Because of their more limited financial integration with the world economy, low-income countries were mostly affected by the crisis through the trade channel. As trade has largely recovered, and as strong growth in emerging market countries has pushed up commodity prices, many of them are doing well. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, grew at more than 5 percent in 2010, and we forecast roughly the same for next year. Their performance, however, is not only due to exports. Previous sound policies allowed many to use fiscal measures to support their economies. And private domestic demand typically has also been quite strong.

IMF Survey online: Let us turn to Europe. What’s the outlook there, particularly for some of the countries on what is termed the periphery Europe?

Blanchard: There is no question that a number of countries in Europe face a tough and long macroeconomic adjustment. In most cases, they would have had to do so whether or not the global crisis had taken place. The global crisis only makes it tougher.

"For those countries in the euro and thus operating under a fixed exchange rate, this is going to be a long and tough slog."
They had, based on what turned out to be unduly optimistic expectations, increased domestic demand excessively, and some had run very large current account deficits. Like others, but more so than others, they must shift from domestic demand to external demand. For those countries in the euro and thus operating under a fixed exchange rate, this is going to be a long and tough slog.

Stronger growth in core Europe, if it comes, will strengthen their exports and help the adjustment. But, based on past experience, a full return to health will likely take a long time. Social programs are essential, both for their own sake and to maintain broad political support.

IMF Survey online: What about fiscal and banking problems?

Blanchard: Except for Greece, the fiscal woes are the result of the macro slump, not of irresponsible fiscal behavior. Can the countries achieve fiscal sustainability? They can, but another IMF fiscal mantra should be repeated here: What is essential is not so much dramatic cuts now but medium-term anchoring, a credible path to debt stabilization, and eventually debt reduction.

Can they do it on their own? I fully understand the reluctance of countries to ask for a joint program from the European Union and the IMF. But such programs can help, in two ways: First, by putting a ceiling on the interest rate at which governments can borrow, the programs eliminate the risk of multiple equilibria—that is the risk that investors, right or wrong, ask for high interest rates, making it impossible for the countries to repay, and making the investors’ fears self fulfilling. Second, even if the programs do not ask for more than the country intended to do on its own, they reinforce the credibility of these commitments, and reassure markets about the medium run.

In addition to fiscal worries are the current fears about the banking system. I suspect these are overstated. But, the only way to decrease those fears is increased transparency, and, for this, the sooner the better. In practice, this means new, more credible stress tests, together with clearer rules about burden sharing: How much of the losses will be absorbed by creditors, by national governments, by the EU. There is a lot of loose talk about bailouts. My belief is that the bailout component, either by national governments, or the European Union, can be quite limited. But we shall only know that once the homework has been done.

IMF Survey online: You have talked about rebalancing, and what countries have to do. What can we expect from the G-20, and in particular from the G-20 mutual assessment process, the so-called MAP?

Blanchard: There is no question that the Group of Twenty has played a central role in the crisis. So long as the crisis was acute, it provided just the right forum for strong and fast action. Now that the crisis is less acute, and countries increasingly face different problems, agreement is clearly harder to achieve, and, as we saw in the buildup to Seoul, discussions can be intense.

But discussions take place as part of the G-20 process, both in public view and behind the scenes. And here, the G-20 MAP process, in which the Fund acts as an expert consultant to the G-20, can play a central role. It can give national policymakers a sense of the world economy landscape, show the implications of current policies, show the dangers of an unbalanced recovery, explore alternative policies, and make for a much more informed dialogue. This does not guarantee success. But it surely improves the odds.


http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/NEW123010A.htm

Sunday, December 12, 2010

How to increase Your Mind Power

How to increase Your Mind Power
In this page you can find information about mind power and how to increase it. It is an introductory page to some powerful mind-expanding techniques. Although that our mind has unlimited potential, we only use the brain power we are conscious of.

As you explore new dimensions of thinking, there are many techniques that can help you improve your existing mind powers. I will try to approach some of these techniques providing you with information about them and also with instructions on how to apply them to you.

With the term mind power we usually mean the overall capacity of the mind. This capacity can be expressed in many ways, some of which are listed below:

• Cognitive Abilities

• Intelligence

• Paranormal Mind Powers

• Creativity

• Talents

• Way of Thinking

• Consciousness

• Intuition



My view is that mind power, as intelligence, is not comparable and cannot be measured. This is happening because of its infinite dimensions. Two people may have great mind power but no one can say whose is stronger.

In another case someone may have a great mental ability but lacking in other abilities. There is no absolute scale by which you can measure your mind power.

The only thing you can say for sure is that you can increase your mind capability through practice.

There are many techniques that can help you take advantage of more of your mind’s capacity. Using them may improve your everyday life while in the same time change your overall way of thinking.

For example, imagine how great it would be if you could read a whole book in just 2 hours. Imagine how much knowledge you could be able to absorb. Such a method is a life changer. The good news here is that this is possible and anyone can do it. It just needs motivation and patience.


Motivation and Patience?

Now you may wonder whether I use techniques like the above… some of them yes, others I plan to.

The major problem with all these mind power techniques is our lack of discipline. If you want to succeed, you have to stay tuned in and invest large amounts of effort and patience. This applies to everything in life. I suppose you can remember times in your life where you had to work hard in order to succeed.

You may have to study hard to get your degree or to train hard to win a tennis match. Remember, whatever you did needed commitment. So if you want to increase your mind power you also have to put effort in it. Stay focused on whatever you do and you will succeed.

Mastering some of the following techniques may increase your mind power.


• Mind Mapping

• Brain Teasers and Games

• Speed Reading

• People Observation

• Meditation

• Critical & Lateral Thinking

• Wondering and Thinking Deeply

• Writing

• Language Learning

• Realizing Brain’s Limits

• Neurolinguistic Programming (NLP)

• Thought Management

• Mind Control


This list can go on and on as there are a lot more mind-expanding dimensions that can be included in it. Ok, some of the above are interrelated, like Meditation and Mind Control or Language learning and Writing.

Some meanings are subsets of others. The reason that I mention them is because I want to emphasize on them as I consider them important. Also, it is a way of narrowing them down. For example Learning a new Language is a very broad meaning while Writing is a narrower one.

Your brain consists of the left and the right hemispheres. It is proven that the two hemispheres manage different mental tasks. The above list improves tasks that belong to both hemispheres.

For example some Brain teasers and games improves left hemisphere while Lateral thinking is a right hemisphere process. There are also techniques that improve both hemispheres. An example is writing which requires creativity and also linguistic skills.


Analyzing the List

Let’s discuss briefly the list of mind power techniques.


Mind Mapping

My first experience with Mind Mapping was some years ago. I remember that I had read a book written by Tony Buzan entitled “Use your Mind”. Mind Mapping is a learning technique that exploits more of your mind capabilities. Who said that learning is linear?

Using mind maps while your learn, you help your mind to store the information into the long-term memory. A mind map is not linear. This means that you cannot read it in a sequential way. It is just a scheme containing all the important information you want to memorize.

Mind mapping is not a replacement to the traditional method of learning but a supplement. You use it as you study. In order to create a mind map you have to know the important meanings, definitions and concepts of what you read. That’s why you cannot replace the traditional way of studying with mind mapping.

When I was a student, I used to create mind maps. I can say from my experience, that it was really helpful. They came in handy, especially in lessons with many definitions and formulas. The last time I used mind mapping was for a lesson for my postgraduate degree two years ago.

If you haven’t ever used mind mapping then I recommend you try it. It’s a powerful tool that can increase your mind power.


Brain Teasers and Games

Brain teasers and brain games are entertaining and you can also benefit from them. I like to play such games; some of them are tricky and challenging.

There are many types of brain teasers and games. Each type is intended to improve a specific area in your brain. Brain areas such as frontal, parietal and temporal lobes, are related to different mental tasks. So improving these areas results to better and faster thinking.

It would be very good for your brain and your mind if you could dedicate some of your daily free time, if any, to playing such games. You don’t need more than 15 minutes per day to keep your brain in shape.

It is true that the brain is like a muscle. You have to train it. It is vital for you to maintain your existing neuron networks. If you don’t, then your brain won’t use them and will shut them down. Thus, your mind power is lowering by the time.

Speed Reading

These techniques help you read faster. There are many ways to do this. I have tried some of them in the past. You just have to get used to it. This may be a little tricky because you cannot remember this every time you read something. Despite also this, it is a little tiring after a while.

There are many speed reading courses online. I would like to try the Photoreading course by Paul Scheele. I have heard good things about it but I have never tried it. I didn’t find the time to try it actually. When I do I will let you know my results. If they are positive I will also write a full review about it and recommend it.

This course is supposed to help you read a whole book in a matter of minutes. While you "photoread" you use both your conscious and subconscious mind. You actually take mental photos of the pages of the book and you can retrieve them from the memory anytime. Sounds interesting…


People Observation

Well, by using this term I mean to observe people’s reactions, behavior and body movements. A part of this is the body language. People Observation takes you a step further from the body language. You observe also their mindset.

You can find similarities in the way of thinking in completely different people. If you do this with every person you meet, after some time, you will be able to do this subconsciously. In the end you will have an intuitive feeling about the thoughts of others and their emotional states. Thus your Emotional Intelligence will have improved and so your mind power.

Observing people, even if you don’t know them, also improves your psychological skills. You will be able to detect lies, intentions and maybe some thoughts of others.

I used to do this consciously every time I met someone. If there was no one to meet, I just watched the people around me. Finally this skill became active permanently and I never think of it. This gives me an advantage into my interpersonal relationships. It’s a good way to better understand and communicate with other people.


Meditation

Meditation is a very old relaxation practice used mainly by oriental civilizations. Nowadays it is very popular and it has been proved that meditation can have positive effects on body and mind.

When you meditate you go deep into yourself and slowly you silence your thoughts. Meditation is the art of awareness. Any act which is done with awareness and doesn't involve judgment or feelings is meditation.

With meditation you can increase your brain power in various ways like altering your consciousness to a higher level. These will be discussed in detail in the Meditation page.

Meditation is also a method of mind control and thought management.


Critical & Lateral Thinking

Critical thinking, in general, is the ability to judge properly a situation and then decide if you agree or disagree with it. This situation may be an argument, a belief or an action.

Critical thinking is a left hemisphere process and involves basically logic. But it is not only logic’s product. Critical thinking involves other skills as well such as clarity, fairness and others.

It is believed that people who have critical thinking usually tend to reject. But actually, people who reject have no critical thinking. They just are suspicious and afraid of everything. If you think of yourself as a critical thinker because of rejecting everything, sorry but you aren’t.

Lateral thinking now is a completely different way of thinking. Lateral thinking is a product of creativity and it is a right hemisphere process.

When you think laterally you approach a situation in an indirect way. You create new ideas and invent new perspectives.

This type of thinking is used in problem solving. Lateral thinking helps you in solving problems in a creative way (using brainstorming and analyzing the new ideas), finding a solution that is not initially visible. Lateral thinking is also an ability that is appreciated in management and business.

It is also synonymous to the phrase “thinking out of the box”. When you reach a level where you can think in this way then you will have increased your mind power for sure.


Wondering and Thinking Deeply (or Philosophy ?)

Wondering comes before Philosophy. It is a trait that indicates the existence of Spiritual Intelligence. Wondering has to do with supreme questions like how the world was created, the existence of god etc.

When you wonder you have the tendency to search and try to find answers to such questions. Of course you can only find theories as none of these questions have been answered. You finally end up with your own theories and explanations. Then you test your theories in your everyday life.

These processes lead your mind to a never-ending analysis of the world around you, inducing you to think deeply. This is also a way of lateral thinking.

Thinking deeply is like Philosophy. But, as Philosophy, nowadays, means the homonym science school, I prefer to call this mind expanding technique just “Thinking Deeply".

More or less we all have moments of deep thinking in our everyday lives. By doing this, we may realize truths that we were unaware of, changing our understanding of the world.

You may have noticed that you are thinking completely different now than 5 years ago. This happens because every day you realize things that change your way of thinking. Thinking Deeply helps you understand better the world and the people around you.

It is also a form of lateral thinking. Asking yourself why and trying to understand how things work, induce you to think laterally. Thinking Deeply increase your consciousness level and so also your mind power.



Writing

Writing is one of the four linguistic skills. The other three are speaking, reading and listening. I chose writing because it engages your mind’s creativity and also gives you the time to organize your thoughts.

When you write an article, like me now, thousands of thoughts and ideas pass through your head. You may not know how to start writing an article (blank page syndrome) but after a while your mind is full of ideas (brainstorming) that you can write for hours.

When you write your mind is in a creative state. Doing this too often, your mind learns how to enter the creative state faster. You can reach a level at which this will be happening instantly. By becoming more creative you increase your mind power significantly.


Learning a Foreign Language

It is proven that nothing can maintain your mind’s resources better than learning a new foreign language. When you learn a new language a process called neurogenesis is engaged in your brain. Neurogenesis is a term describing the creation of new neuron networks.

Despite this fact, a different language introduces you to a new different way of thinking. Your intelligence and memory improve as you learn all the new vocabulary, syntax and grammatical rules. It engages all of your brain’s subsystems.

I once read in a magazine that learning a new language slows down the aging process. It is an all-in-one way to expand and keep your mind in shape and a very powerful technique to increase your mind power.


Knowing your Brain’s Limits

How can this knowledge contribute to your mind expansion? It keeps you motivated and healthy.

This is not actually a technique but a prerequisite. You have to know your brain’s limits in order to achieve your goals. You cannot expect that you will develop telekinesis in a matter of days or months. The possibility of ever developing such a power is nearly zero.

The above example emphasizes on the fact that you must have patience. Setting rational goals that your brain is able to achieve will have much greater results than setting goals that you don’t believe in.

The brain is not a machine, it is a biological organ. This means that it needs rest. Don’t keep your brain working without rest because you damage it. You will lose all of your gains if you don’t pay attention to your brain’s needs.

Good brain foods must be also a concern as these will boost the brain's potential limit. Feed well the grey matter and you will be rewarded.

Sleeping is a vital process for your mind. It needs it to organize the day’s new experiences, so give it its time. Try to sleep as many hours as your mind needs, not less but also not more. Oversleeping is also not good for your mind.


Neurolinguistic Programming (NLP)
Neurolinguistic Programming is a set of psychological tools that increase your influence over other people. Mastering NLP techniques gives you a huge advantage and disposition when interacting with people.

You can actually control other people’s minds if you are an expert in NLP. Ok, it’s not easy to reach such a level but you can learn some basics that you can use in order to influence someone. We will discuss some NLP techniques in the NLP page.


Thought Management

What I refer to as thought management is the ability to organize your thoughts and set priorities effectively. This usually applies to a working environment where many jobs have to be done in a short amount of time.

People who have a good thought management own managerial positions in companies. They are able to put priorities to a job stack and finish all of the jobs in time. Doing this is very difficult because such a job position is very stressful.

You have to remain calm in order to have a good thought management. This is a result of mind power increase rather than a technique. When you control your stress levels then it is easier for you to manage your thoughts.


Mind Control

Your mind power will be increased noticeably as you start controlling your mind. There are techniques, such as the Silva Method, which help you bring your thoughts under control.

Mind control is not just a technique but a set of techniques. This is a category in itself that will bring your consciousness to an upper level. Expect the effects to be strong and to change your general world perception.

All the above are tips and techniques that will evolve your mind. You don’t have to master all these techniques in order to ascend level. Take your time and don’t get anxious. Remember patience is the key.

http://www.mind-expanding-techniques.com/MindPower.html